This historical analysis doesn't lend itself to fancying Thiem's chances of denying Nadal an 11th French Open title this afternoon, and neither did my model pricing either.
Nadal retained the momentum in the second set, breaking his opponent in the second game and holding out to edge closer to yet another title at Roland Garros.
"Nadal absolutely did admit that he gets nervous", Whitaker said.
The 32-year-old world number one now has 17 Grand Slam titles, just three behind great rival Roger Federer. He saved two of a mere three break points.
Nadal called it "not even a dream" to gather 11 titles in Paris, saying it was "impossible to think of something like this".
"What you did and what you are doing", Thiem told Nadal during the trophy ceremony, "is one of the most outstanding things that any athlete is doing in any sport".
Nadal beat the Austrian 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in a match the he dominated from the very start.
Nadal celebrated in relatively low key fashion, but then there is not much novelty value in this.
The Coach, Patrick Mouratoglou, analyses where a fascinating final between Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem could be won and lost. If standard play would likely lead to a loss, why not try for the spectacular, instead? He attempted drop shots; some worked, some didn't.
Nadal had 12 unforced errors.
It worked. For a bit. When a return went long on a fifth match point, Nadal raised his arms in joy. But from 4-all in the opening set, Nadal grabbed five games in a row and was in charge. A volley into the net.
Soon, Nadal was finding his spots. Any hopes of an upset all but disappeared along with the ragged Thiem forehand which sailed way beyond the baseline. Nadal and Thiem have met nine times - all of them on clay.